Canada: 2022-23 barley supplies up sharply from last year’s record low

For 2022-23, Canadian barley supplies are projected at 10.6 million tonnes (Mt), up sharply from last year’s record low of 7.92 Mt, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada said in their May report.

Total domestic use is forecast at 6.11 Mt, up 30% from last year on higher feed use.

Total exports are projected at 3.72 Mt, up 39% from last year. The major international destinations for Canadian barley and products include China, the US, Japan and Mexico.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 730 thousand tonnes (Kt), rising sharply from last year’s record low but remaining tight.

Barley stocks at March 31, 2023, were tight, despite a rise from a year ago, according to Statistics Canada’s (STC) stocks report released on May 9. The volume was pegged at 2.67 Mt, up by 44% from a year ago but nearly the lowest level ever at March 31. This largely reflected the situation of on-farm stocks which account for about 80% of total stocks. Commercial stocks increased sharply from a year ago and the average. The stocks report also indicated that total disappearance in the first eight months of the current crop year (August 2022-March 2023) was pegged at 7.88 Mt, up 32% and 9%, respectively, from a year ago and the average, due to strong domestic feed use and exports.

The Lethbridge feed barley price over the past month ranged from C$400/tonne (t) to C$425/t. For the crop year to-date, the Lethbridge feed barley price averaged around C$418/t, versus C$432/t for the same period a year ago. For the entire crop year, the Lethbridge feed barley average price is forecast at C$410/t, down nearly C$20/t from last year’s record high.

For 2023-24, Canadian producers intend to plant 2.87 million hectares (Mha) of barley, according to STC’s first acreage report for 2023 growing season. This is only slightly above the acreage of 2.85 Mha in 2022-23, as the expected big expansion in Alberta, the largest barley growing province, is mostly offset by declines elsewhere; the biggest decline is anticipated in Saskatchewan, the second largest barley producing province, followed by Manitoba. Producers from Ontario also decided to notably reduce barley acres.

If realized, Canadian barley acreage in 2023-24 will be 4% below the previous five-year average.

Assuming an average abandonment rate and yield, Canadian barley production for 2023-24 is projected at 9.54 Mt, down 4% from last year.

Supported by an expected increase in carry-in stocks, total supply in 2023-24 is projected at 10.3 Mt, slightly below 2022-23 and the previous five-year average.

Total domestic use is predicted to increase slightly year-over-year (y/y) on larger industrial use while feed use is projected to be relatively stable.

Exports are projected to decline, but still above average.

Carry-out stocks are projected at 0.8 Mt, up 10% but down 5%, respectively, from 2022-23 and the average.

The 2023-24 Lethbridge average price is projected at C$350/t, lower than the C$410/t predicted for 2022-23, partly reflecting an anticipated good domestic supply and lower US corn prices in 2023-24.

Worldwide, global barley production for 2023-24 is expected to decline by 3% (4.62 Mt) from 2022-23 to 147.4 Mt, the lowest in the recent five years, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is because barley production in the world’s major barley exporting countries is expected to decline, led by Australia posting a 29% (4.1 Mt) decline, followed by Russia to decline by 9% (2.0 Mt).

Global ending stocks for the crop year are projected by the USDA to decline by 5% (1.02 Mt) y/y to 18.1 Mt, the lowest on record.

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